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Igciwane elithathelana kakhulu

Ukulandelela ukuthi isifo esithathelwanayo esifana ne-COVID-19 sisakazeka kalula kangakanani, izazi zezifo eziwumshayabhuqe zisebenzisa imethrikhi ebizwa ngokuthi inombolo eyisisekelo yokuzala noma u-R0 (obizwa ngokuthi “R naught”). U-R0 uyisilinganiso senani labantu abasengozini okulindeleke ukuthi umuntu ngamunye onegciwane alithelele. Kunzima ukuqiniseka nge-R0 yezifo eziwubhadane zasendulo, kodwa ngobhadane lomkhuhlane wango-1918, kucatshangwa ukuthi umuntu onaleli gciwane udlulisele lesi sifo kubantu ababili noma abathathu, okusinika i-R0 ephakathi kuka-2.0 no-3.0. Ubhubhane lwe-coronavirus lokuqala lwe-SARS lwango-2002, lune-R0 kokuthathu; ubhubhane lwe-coronavirus lwesibili—i-Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) yaqala ukuhlonzwa ngo-2012—i-R0 yayiphakathi kuka-0.69 no-1.3. Onodoli Bocansi Be-Anime

Manje i-CDC ilinganisela ukuthi abantu abangenwe yiDelta badlulisela leli gciwane kubantu abaphakathi kwabahlanu no-9.5. Lokhu kungaphezulu kunegciwane lokuqala elahlonzwa e-Wuhan, e-China, elalino-R0 phakathi kuka-2.3 no-2.7, kanye nokwehluka kwe-Alpha okwakuno-R0 phakathi kwesine nesihlanu. I-Delta ingatheleleka njengepox, eno-R0 phakathi kuka-9 no-10. Onodoli Abangempela Bocansi

Uma u-R0 mkhulu kunoyedwa, isibalo sabantu abangenwe yilesi sifo sizoqhubeka sikhula kakhulu kuze kube yilapho bonke abantu abathintekayo sebeshonile noma sebeluleme futhi kufinyelelwa ukungavikeleki komhlambi. Uma i-R0 ingaphansi kokukodwa ukuqubuka kungase kuziqhamuke ngokwakho.Onodoli Bocansi Babesilisa

Ku-SARS-CoV-2 yasekuqaleni, ukungatheleleki komhlambi kungafinyelelwa lapho cishe amaphesenti angama-67 abantu bengavikelekile - kungaba ngokutheleleka kwemvelo noma ngokugoma. "KuDelta, leyo mikhawulo silinganisela ukuthi ingaphezu kwamaphesenti angama-80, mhlawumbe isondela kumaphesenti angama-90," kusho uRicardo Franco, umsizi kaprofesa wezokwelapha eNyuvesi yase-Alabama eBirmingham esithangamini nabezindaba esihlelwe yi-Infectious Diseases Society of America.